Weather Forecast For April 29, 2019
Written By Andrew Ditch
Written on: April 29, 2019 11:30 AM EDT
Updated: April 29, 2019 12:35 PM EDT
Todays Video
None for toda! News update for tomarows Long Rang Outlook. I will share you the Atlantic Huricane Forecast Outlook for 2019.
Todays Written Article
National Weather News
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2019
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 29 2019 - 12Z Wed May 1 2019
...Active weather pattern continues across the Plains and the Rockies...
The weather pattern will continue to be unsettled across much of the
Plains and extending westward across the Rockies. A quasi-stationary
frontal boundary is forecast to become established from the central
Rockies to the Midwest, and also extending eastward to the Mid-Atlantic
region. Multiple waves of low pressure are expected along this front and
result in areas of enhanced rainfall. The heaviest rain is likely from
northern Oklahoma to southern Michigan, with some locations getting 2 to 4
inches of rain by Wednesday morning. There is an increased threat of
flash flooding across the central plains where multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are expected. The threat of severe weather increases across
the southern plains on Monday with the best moisture and upper level
forcing residing over this region, and then across the central plains on
Tuesday in the warm sector of the surface low.
Across the Rockies, heavy snow will be making headlines for the beginning
of the week with the potential for 1 to 2 feet of accumulation for the
higher mountain ranges. This will be enhanced by moist upslope flow on
the north side of the front. Some snow is also likely across the western
High Plains from western Nebraska to eastern Montana.
Temperatures will continue to remain below average across the northern
tier of the nation through the beginning of the week, with the greatest
departures from normal across the northern plains. Warmer than normal
readings are expected across the Desert Southwest and southern plains,
south of the frontal boundaries.
D. Hamrick
Long Range Outlook For the USA
Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAY 2019
The May 2019 outlook is informed by various forecast tools, both dynamical and
statistical, and is issued against a tropical background state that is largely
dominated by ENSO. El Nino conditions remain in place across the equatorial
Pacific, and are forecast to persist into boreal summer. Forecast tools that
contribute to the 0.5-month lead May 2019 outlook also vary in terms of their
characteristic time scales. Medium range dynamical models now extend into very
early May, and the the latest Weeks 3-4 guidance covers nearly the first half
of the month. These are in addition to guidance initialized during early April
for the entire month of May, which will tend to emphasize interannual
variability.
A good starting place for the May outlook is the calibrated NMME guidance. This
guidance is augmented by uncalibrated (but non-biased) forecast guidance from
the ECMWF and more recent runs of the CFS. Long-term trends play a role as
well. Given the time of year, antecedent soil moisture conditions play a role
by affecting the partitioning of incident solar radiation between sensible and
latent heating.
The temperature outlook consists of above-normal temperatures favored in an
arc-like region from parts of the West Coast, across the northern tier, and
over much of the eastern CONUS. Above-normal temperatures are strongly favored
over much of Alaska. Inspection of the forecast circulation for the CFS, for
example, reveals an ENSO-like wave dispersion featuring positive 200-hPa height
anomalies centered near and southeast of Hawaii, a weakness in above-normal
heights extending across parts of the eastern Pacific and southwestern North
America, and an anomalous 200-hPa ridge over west-central Canada extending
southeastward to the eastern CONUS. This general structure of the upper-level
height field is apparent in the latest Weeks 3-4 guidance and is broadly
consistent with ENSO regressions, but shifted 10-20 degrees longitude eastward
over the Pacific-North America domain. While this circulation pattern is
sufficient to explain the overall temperature pattern, there are some other
factors at play. High-amplitude soil moisture anomalies over much of the
central CONUS extending into the Midwest have a negative impact on temperature
during the warm season, and lead to a reduction in above-normal probabilities
relative to model guidance over parts of the Upper Midwest and Plains.
Below-normal temperatures are more likely over parts of the Southern Plains,
where forecast above-normal rainfall and wetter-than-normal soils support the
model consensus. Equal chances is depicted over a large region encompassing
much of the Southwest and parts of the Great Basin. Dynamical models are not in
good agreement here as the long-term warming trends and a relatively cool
interannual signal are destructively interfering.
The precipitation outlook is consistent with the aforementioned circulation
pattern; above-normal rainfall is more likely near and east of the anomalous
cyclonic upper-level circulation. This extends over much of the interior West,
High Plains, and Southern/Central Plains. There is an eastward extension at
very modest probabilities across the Gulf Coast and Deep South consistent with
ENSO and the dynamical model consensus. There is a small region extending from
the Pacific Northwest to the Alaska panhandle where below-normal precipitation
is more likely. This is likewise based on the model consensus and consistent
with long-term trends . There was some consideration of depicting below-normal
rainfall over parts of the Northeast and Great Lakes in accordance with the
latest Weeks 3-4 guidance and recent CFS runs. However, this is a low-skill
region in the hindcast and contrary to long-term trends , so equal chances is
depicted over the northeastern quarter of the CONUS.
FORECASTER: Stephen Baxter
The climatic normals are based on conditions between 1981 and 2010, following
the World Meteorological Organization convention of using the most recent 3
complete decades as the climate reference period. The probability anomalies
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals.
An updated monthly outlook... for May will be issued on Tue April 30 2019
These outlooks are based on departures from the 1981-2010 base period.
$$
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html
Buffalo, NY Weather News
Today
Cloudy, with a high near 51. East wind around 11 mph.
Tonight
Rain before midnight, then a chance of showers between midnight and 2am. Low around 38. East wind 5 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Tuesday
Cloudy, with a high near 51. North wind around 6 mph.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers, mainly after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 44. East wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Wednesday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 64. East wind around 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night
Occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 45. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday Night
Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 47. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday
Showers likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 56.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 40.
Sunday
Partly sunny, with a high near 62.
Source: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?textField1=42.99&textField2=-78.91#.XMcTDvUpA0g
Todays Trivia!
What year was the warmest May on record in Buffalo, NY?
What year was the wettest on record for April for Dallas, TX?
Please comment in the comments below.
Stay tuned to the answer to todays trivia question tomorrow!
