I haven't done a video blog to this yet because I am having trouble communicating. But here is my texted forecast. I will share the video shortly for this.
Here is my very detailed forecast.
Because I am a weather guru, I am sharing my forecast for this coming winter. This winter's set up is forecasted to be a weak El Nino what almost ever weather station has said. Now I may be technical in this post so if anything that isnt specified for anyone to understand the term please let me know.
The setup... The weak El Nino like said above most importantly it is forecasted to be an eastern based el Nino. This means the warmer waters above 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal is expected to be near South America compared to its placement. This may set a subtropical jet that may set up over this warmer waters and be over the southern California into the Texas and Misourri area that will then combine with the Artic Jet listed below.
A positive PDO or warmer waters off the Golf of Alaska and Barien Strait. This will allow two things. The jet artic streem will set An amplified ridge over the Alaska and off the western coast. This will allow a amplified trough to form the central to mid west through the east coast. There will be a mild trough to the west of this amplified ridge and this trough will be over the eastern Asia near Russia, Northern China and Japan. A note here the Artic Jet isnt actually named Artic I forgot the scientific name so those who know it comments are appreciated.
Other factors of ocean temperatures and how they may play a roll into this winter. The Atlantic Ocean especially off the coast from NJ to Florida is much above normal temperatures and the Gulf of Mexico is extremely warmer than normal. These warmer than normal temperatures will amplify moisture to be included into any system that sets up and may dump a lot of rain and winter precipitation. I will go into more details on this below.
My Forecast... before I go into details the jet streem in the west is known as the PNA and is stood for Pacific-North America Oscillation. This PNA in its Positive Phase makes a Ridge in the West. The NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation is the jet streem in the east coast. In its negative phase it makes a trough in the east. Because of this amplified weather pattern there may be what is known as an atmospheric blocking pattern set up off the coast of Iceland. This is an area of higher pressure or above normal heights. This blocking will prevent any storm system to easily move eastward out to the Atlantic and will have three options move north of that high, move south of that high, and or simply just stall in the east while it waits to move in either direction.
Now we have the terms here what does this mean far as the weather? It should be similar winter to 1977 78 and as most recently 2014 15. It is going to be warmer to much warmer than normal in the West. Depending on the placement or development of the Subtropical jet in the west SouthWestern states could be wetter than normal. This is a huge if. The Northwest will be very warm than normal and be very dryer than normal. The central US... the South Central US into what is known as Dixi Ally (2nd tornado ally) will be wetter and slightly cooler than normal. Except a bit more of snow fall. North Central will be cooler to colder than normal. A near normal to slightly below normal precipitation. The East... the Great Lakes to Northeast. Much colder than normal temperatures and a big time much more snow especially from Buffalo Eastward. The South East... there will be more precipitation and more winter precipitation especially mid Atlantic area. The temperatures will be much below normal then average and even far south as Milami Florida may get cold at times.
